The Brink's Co (The Brink's Co) Predictability Rank

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What is The Brink's Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Brink's Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The Brink's Co (The Brink's Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » The Brink's Co (NYSE:BCO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PTY:Germany PTY:Germany

Address

1801 Bayberry Court, P.O. Box 18100, Richmond, VA, USA, 23226-8100

Website

https://www.brinks.com

The Brink's Co is a Global provider of secure logistics and security solutions for cash and other valuables. In 2020, the company acquired the U.K.-based G4S that reorganized its operating segments to be North America, Latin America, Europe, and Rest of World. It generates maximum revenue from the North America segment, namely from its core business of cash-in-transit and ATM services. The Latin America and Europe segments trail North America in revenue earnings with the Brinks Global Services line of business that specializes in the secure transportation of high-valued commodities, such as jewelry, precious metals, banknotes, and electronics. Brink's customer base includes financial institutions, retails, government agencies, mints, and other commercial businesses.

Executives

Arthelbert Louis Parker	director	THE BRINK'S COMPANY, 1801 BAYBERRY CT, 4TH FL, PO BOX 18100, RICHMOND VA 23226
Dominik Bossart	officer: SVP	1800 BAYBERRY COURT, PO BOX 18100, RICHMOND VA 23226
Elizabeth A Galloway	officer: EVP and CHRO	AT HOME GROUP INC., 1600 EAST PLANO PARKWAY, PLANO TX 75074
Michael F Beech	officer: Executive Vice President	THE BRINK'S COMPANY, 1801 BAYBERRY COURT, 4TH FLOOR, RICHMOND VA 23226
Michael J Herling	director	177 BROAD STREET, 15TH FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06901
Keith R Wyche	director	1801 BAYBERRY COURT, PO BOX 18100, RICHMOND VA 23226
Kurt B Mcmaken	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	THE BRINK'S COMANY, 1801 BAYBERRY COURT, PO BOX 18100, RICHMOND VA 23226
Simon Davis	officer: SVP, CHRO	5757 N GREEN BAY AVE, MILWAUKEE WI 53209
Daniel J Castillo	officer: EVP	2645 SILVER CRESCENT DRIVE, CHARLOTTE NC 28273
Susan E Docherty	director	THE BRINK'S COMPANY, 1801 BAYBERRY COURT, 4TH FLOOR, RICHMOND VA 23226
Kathie J. Andrade	director	6300 LAMAR AVENUE, OVERLAND PARK KS 66202
Rohan Pal	officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer	1801 BAYBERRY COURT, RICHMOND VA 23226
Michael E Sweeney	officer: Controller	C/O LIQUIDITY SERVICES, INC., 1920 L STREET, N.W., 6TH FLOOR, WASHINGTON DC 20036
Timothy Joseph Tynan	director	1801 BAYBERRY COURT, PO BOX 18100, RICHMOND VA 23226
Lindsay K. Blackwood	officer: EVP & General Counsel	1801 BAYBERRY COURT, PO BOX 18100, RICHMOND VA 23226